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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still