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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.