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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."